彼得·伦顿 : 致中国网贷行业的一封亲笔信风雨之后终见彩虹

网贷零壹财经零壹财经 2018-08-01

关键词：P2P网贷 美国国会 美国P2P 唐宁 金融科技

P2P网贷行业到了关键时刻。本文为零壹财经推出的“关键时刻，关键回答”P2P网贷系列专访之——美国国会 Fintech 高级顾问Peter Renton。

引言

P2P网贷行业到了关键时刻。

它现在需要坚强站在疾风骤雨下，回答来自各个层面、包括从业者本身的疑问。

此刻，需要把最真实的P2P网贷行业，把一批代表性平台的真实情况，把一批企业家、协会代表的想法和行动，呈现给市场、参与者和关心P2P网贷的人。

这是艰难的，但是，有勇气才有未来。

为此，零壹财经推出系列专访，请P2P网贷行业的关键人物，给出关键答案。

本文为零壹财经推出的"关键时刻，关键回答"P2P网贷系列专访之--美国国会 Fintech 高级顾问、Lend Academy创始人Peter Renton。

大浪淘沙现真金

Many platforms are going out of business but the strong platforms will survive

在如今的中国 P2P 市场，虽然平台倒闭的消息不绝于耳，然而其中的佼佼者必将存活下去并脱颖而出。

My first trip to China was back in 2014 when I was invited to speak at a closeddoor meeting with Chinese regulators and leading P2P lending platforms. Theywanted to learn about the US market and trends I was seeing here at the time.

我与中国的第一次结缘，是在 2014 年。当时，我受邀参加一次 P2P 行业会议，来分享美国 P2P 市场的信息和趋势，参会的还有中国监管部门和当时行业的一流平台。

Back then new platforms were launching pretty much every day as P2P lending becamethe hot new investment. The number of platforms grew to well over 3,000, anumber that everyone agreed was not sustainable. But new platforms kept onlaunching attracting both investors and borrowers with relative ease.

在4年前，P2P 借贷是当时一门新兴的热门投资项目，每天都会有新的平台进入市场。当时中国市场上存续的 P2P 借贷平台数量超过了 3000 家。众所周知的是，这样粗犷的增长模式并不能一直持续下去，其背后必定有潜伏着的风险。然而，每当一个新平台进入市场，投资者和借贷者又会被吸引过去。

日均倒闭5家平台的现状

We all knew the party was going to end at some point and it looks like 2018 willbe the year of reckoning. According to industry data provider, platforms arefailing at a rate of around 5 a day with 114 platforms shutting down betweenJuly 1 and July 24.

我们都知道，这场 P2P 行业的狂欢派对总会在未来某个时间结束，而 2018 年，似乎就是这样一个清算的年头。根据行业机构的数据显示，在7月1日到7月24日间，一共有 114 家平台倒闭，平均每天有 5 家平台宣布完全关平或者暂停提现。

Many investors are losing their money as platforms either shut down completely or suspend withdrawals. While some platform failures have been due to outright fraudit seems that most have been hit with much higher default rates than expected.As we have learned in this country in recent years underwriting unsecuredconsumer loans is hard. It requires deep knowledge of consumer credit and eventhen positive investor returns are not guaranteed.

随着平台陆续的倒闭，越来越多的投资者损失了他们的投资本金。当我们仔细剖析这些倒闭的案例时，我们发现，除了那些本就是骗局的 P2P 平台，余下的平台也都有着远高出预期的违约率。据我们近年来在中国市场了解所知，承销无担保消费贷款本身就是一个很有技巧的业务。即便是在具备了完备信贷知识的情况下，承销该种贷款也无法保证一定会盈利。

In a South China Morning Post (SCMP) , the head of the Beijing Internet Finance Association, Ning Tang, whois also the founder of CreditEase, was interviewed and they had this to say about him: While he cautions investors to exercisebetter judgment to avoid fraudulent platforms, Tang insists that P2P is a solid investment method with a proven track record in China and oas for morethan a decade. The reputable P2P platforms focus on diversified investments tosafeguard returns.

在南华早报（SCMP）近期的一篇文章中，北京互联网金融协会会长，宜信创始人，唐宁先生表示，虽然在国内具十年经营历史的 P2P 投资本身是一个可靠的投资方式，但是，他还是不断提醒投资者，在投资的时候要提防诈骗平台。优秀的 P2P 平台通常会以分散投资的方式，来确保投资回报率。

Reputable platforms seem to be doing just fine as they have not over promised on returnsand have not been hit with as many defaults.

在这次 P2P 的动荡中，优秀的平台依然稳固，因为他们没有过高的承诺投资回报率，并且有效的控制了借款的坏账率。

美国 P2P 行业回顾

While nothing like the scale being experienced in China, in the US we had a major slowdown in the industry recently as defaults rose and investor demand fell. It started in late 2015 and then with the forced resignation of the Lending Club CEO in 2016 the industry took a significant downturn. Some platforms went out of business. Many investors decided they had had enough and stopped investing.

虽然在规模上远小于这次中国市场的倒闭潮，但是在美国，由于违约率的上升和投资需求的下降，P2P 行业也经历过发展速度上的大幅放缓，甚至倒退。美国 P2P 行业的寒冬潮始于 2015 年底，而在 Lending Club 的首席执行官辞职事件后，行业开始严重下滑。其中，一些平台倒闭破产，同时投资者也开始回收资金，不再继续进行 P2P 投资。

But here we stand more than two years removed from the worst crisis in the historyof online lending in this country and the industry has recovered. Originationsare growing, investor demand has returned and many companies are in a muchstronger position than they were two years ago when things looked very grim.

但是，时至今日，美国 P2P 行业的下行潮已经过去两年多了，行业状况也已经得到了完全的恢复，平台和投资者的数量都在增长。在这次 P2P 行业下行潮过后，许多恢复元气的 P2P 平台已经比两年前更加稳固，同时占领了更大的市场份额。

As Ning Tang said in the SCMP article borrower demand remains strong. People theworld over have a strong need for credit and in a growing economy this demandwill keep increasing. Someone has to serve these people and the online lending companies are in the best position to fulfill that demand.

正如唐宁先生接受南华早报的采访时所说的，P2P借贷的借款需求依然很强劲，而在经济不断增长的情况下，这种借贷需要必将不断增加。因此，我们清楚的知道，这样的市场境况下，必须有公司来满足这样庞大的借贷需求，而在线贷款公司正好是满足该需求的最佳角色。

对中国市场的赠言：P2P 行业中，风雨过后，终见彩虹

In a couple of years' time when we look back on China's annus horribilis I think we will see it was a healthy and necessary correction for the industry.

我相信，在未来的某个时刻，当我们回顾 2018 年中国 P2P 市场所经历的这些灾难，我会看到它对行业健康发展的积极影响。

Like any industry there are a few well-funded and strong players who can weather storms far better than their weaker brethren. I expect most, if not all, of them major online lending platforms in China will survive. Some of the middle tierplatforms will also survive but pretty much all of the weaker platforms will fail.

在任何行业中，都有资金雄厚且实力不俗的公司，也会有资金少，实力弱的小公司。当面对行业风险时，实力强的公司才能安全度过，而实力不足的公司则会被淘汰。我认为，目前市场上大多数优质的在线借贷平台都将成功度过这次风暴，中间层次的平台也将会有一部分得以幸存，而所有低层次、实力较弱的平台很可能会被淘汰。

可持续发展的平台数量

At 1,836 platforms reportedly still operating I fear this crisis is not close to being over yet. How many successful platforms can China sustain? I don't know but I suspect the number will be well under 1,000.

根据报道，在中国市场，目前还有 1836 个 P2P 平台仍在运营，因此我担心，这场倒闭风波目前还没有结束。那么，中国市场到底可以成功容纳多少个 P2P 平台呢？我也无法给出准确的数字，但是我认为，这个数字将是远远低于 1000 。

Hopefully, investors will have learned a hard lesson. You should never, ever put all your investments in one basket or one asset class for that matter. While I have been a serious cheer leader for P2P lending for many years now I still have less than 25% of my assets in this space. Now, obviously I have a somewhat vested interest and confidence in the industry's success in China.

希望经过这一次风波，投资者都能够吸取教训，学会"分散投资"，不要再把所有投资都放在一个篮子里。虽然，多年以来我一直是 P2P 投资的忠实拥趸，但是我的 P2P 投资份额也只有我总投资的不到25%。就我个人而言，我对 P2P 行业在中国的成功经验有着极大的兴趣与信心。

While Fintech is focused on far more than online lending, I want to see it not just survive but thrive in China. And I am confident in the end it will.

虽然金融科技覆盖的领域远不局限于在线贷款，我依然希望看到 P2P 行业能够在中国这块市场上茁壮成长。我笃定的相信，中国 P2P 行业终将会历经风雨，见到彩虹。

零壹财经 · 零壹智库发布《关键时刻：P2P网贷危机调研报告》，对6月底以来的P2P网贷危机起源、特征、行业影响等进行了全面分析，并提出10条建设性意见。

阅读报告全文，请点击《关键时刻：P2P网贷危机调研报告》